Reviewed November 14, 2026 (Korea). This study compares public Form 13F positions for the quarters ended March 31 and June 30, 2026.
When most managers changed the same stock in one direction, did the larger pool of Q2 reported value sit on that side too? Usually—but not always. Among ten issuers where at least five clean continuous holders changed share count, the manager headcount and the larger Q2 quarter-end reported-value side disagreed for four: Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO) and ASML (ASML). The four conflict issuers carried $21.32 billion, or 20.99% of the ten-issuer sample’s $101.55 billion in Q2 reported value.
Amazon is an important qualification. Five managers reported more shares and six fewer, while the more-shares group held 50.0458% of the two sides’ Q2 value—only a 0.092 percentage-point edge over the fewer-shares group. With a one-percentage-point minimum gap between the two value sides, Amazon becomes a value tie and the robust conflict count falls from four to three. Microsoft, Broadcom and ASML remain clear counterexamples.
Three findings
- Four of ten widely shared, share-changing issuers produced a strict headcount/value conflict. The result is 40%, but the screen is deliberately narrow and is not a market-wide rate.
- Microsoft was the largest clear conflict: three managers reporting more shares held 68.57% of the issuer’s $5.66 billion Q2 value in this comparison, while five managers reported fewer shares.
- ASML reversed the pattern: three of five managers reported more shares, but the two managers reporting fewer shares held 79.71% of the issuer’s Q2 value.
The same-stock results
| Issuer | Managers: more / fewer shares | Q2 value on more-shares side | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) | 5 / 4 | 90.57% | Aligned higher |
| Amazon (AMZN) | 5 / 6 | 50.05% | Conflict; near value tie |
| Micron (MU) | 3 / 2 | 87.98% | Aligned higher |
| TSMC (TSM) | 4 / 7 | 28.34% | Aligned lower |
| Meta (META) | 3 / 7 | 33.00% | Aligned lower |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) | 3 / 6 | 35.18% | Aligned lower |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 3 / 5 | 68.57% | Conflict |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | 3 / 4 | 63.53% | Conflict |
| AMD (AMD) | 2 / 4 | 40.82% | Aligned lower |
| ASML (ASML) | 3 / 2 | 20.29% | Conflict |
Four conflicts, but four different readings
| Issuer | More-shares group | Fewer-shares group | Headcount / value signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 5 managers / $5.553bn | 6 / $5.543bn | Lower / higher; 0.092 pp value gap |
| Microsoft | 3 / $3.884bn | 5 / $1.780bn | Lower / higher |
| Broadcom | 3 / $2.329bn | 4 / $1.337bn | Lower / higher |
| ASML | 3 / $0.181bn | 2 / $0.710bn | Higher / lower |
Microsoft and Broadcom show why a one-manager majority can be outweighed by the size of the positions on the other side. For Microsoft, the three increasers carried more than twice the Q2 value of the five decreasers. For Broadcom, three increasers held 63.53% of the included value. ASML ran the other way: three increasers formed the manager majority, but Coatue and Bridgewater—the two decreasers—held most of the included Q2 value.
Amazon should not be presented as a strong value-weighted signal. Its $9.8 million difference between the two direction groups is tiny relative to $11.10 billion of included Q2 value. The strict no-threshold classification is useful for reproducibility; the one-percentage-point sensitivity is more useful for interpretation.
What this adds to the earlier direction count
Our earlier cross-manager direction study counted managers reporting more or fewer shares. This article adds a separate denominator: the Q2 reported value held by each direction group. It therefore asks whether the manager majority and the larger disclosed-value side agreed for the same issuer.
It also differs from the largest-holder concentration study, which measured the biggest single reporting group’s share of each issuer’s pooled Q2 value, and from our share-count versus manager-weight study, which compared two directions inside each manager’s own eligible equity book. Here the unit is one issuer across multiple clean share-changing managers.
Method: a class-aware headcount and a separate value side
- Panel: Berkshire Hathaway; Pershing Square; Dalal Street; Appaloosa; Greenlight/DME; Fundsmith; Third Point; the Icahn reporting group; Soros Fund Management; Bridgewater; ARK; Tiger Global; Coatue; Altimeter; Whale Rock; Situational Awareness; and Light Street. Congressional filers are excluded.
- Periods and sources: quarter ends March 31 and June 30, 2026; 35 official SEC information tables. Pershing Square’s Q1 comparison uses two complementary reporting entities.
- Eligible securities: operating-company common equity, ordinary shares, ADRs, REITs and operating-partnership equity. Funds, options, debt/principal positions, warrants, preferred/depositary equity, commodity trusts and dated equity units are excluded.
- Clean direction: as-filed SH quantities are compared at the continuing CUSIP/class level before rolling to the issuer. New, exited, unchanged, changing-class and conflicting-class observations do not enter this screen.
- Issuer threshold: at least five distinct panel managers must have a clean Q1-to-Q2 share-count change. Ten issuers and 81 manager–issuer observations qualify.
- Headcount direction: whichever side has more managers—more shares or fewer shares.
- Value direction: whichever side holds more Q2 quarter-end reported value. This is not a measure of purchases, flows, return, conviction or manager intent.
- Strict conflict: the headcount direction and value direction differ with no materiality threshold. A sensitivity requiring at least a one-percentage-point gap between the value sides removes Amazon and leaves three conflicts.
The source set preserves 4,269 as-filed rows and 4,075 eligible rows after the established instrument filters and manual removal of Bridgewater’s Global X Uranium ETF and Soros Fund Management’s Oracle depositary preferred security in both quarters. The reproducible class-aware comparison yields 1,397 continuous manager–issuer observations, of which 1,266 have a clean share-count change. The ten-issuer threshold screen is a selected subset of that baseline.
Why Q3 is still held back
The SEC’s current filing calendar sets the Q3 2026 Form 13F deadline at November 16, 2026. As reviewed on November 14 in Korea, the complete matched 17-manager Q3 panel and amendment check were not yet available. A deadline is not a filed portfolio, so early submissions from only part of the panel are not substituted for this matched Q1-to-Q2 study.
Limits
Form 13F does not disclose transaction dates, purchase prices, cost basis, motive, short positions, non-13F assets or a complete live portfolio. A higher share count does not prove a bullish decision, and a lower count does not prove a bearish one. Q2 reported value combines quantity and quarter-end price. Summing the same issuer across managers is not unique assets under management. This fixed panel is not representative of all institutions, and the ten-issuer screen is too small for a general market claim. The analysis is for information and education, not investment advice.
For manager histories, the panel definition and other statistical studies, see the AHNIM Studio Guru hub.
Three findings to retain
- Manager headcount and the larger Q2 reported-value side disagreed for four of ten qualifying issuers; three remain conflicts after a one-percentage-point value-gap sensitivity.
- Microsoft’s three increasers held 68.57% of included Q2 value even though five managers reported fewer shares.
- ASML’s three increasers formed the headcount majority, but the two decreasers held 79.71% of included Q2 value.
Sources and original documents
Accessed November 13–14, 2026. AHNIM Studio owns the security eligibility, issuer reconciliation, class-transition quarantine, direction grouping and value-side calculations.
- SEC, Frequently Asked Questions About Form 13F (updated March 6, 2026; filing scope and 2026 calendar).
- SEC, Form 13F and instructions.
- ARK: Q1; Q2.
- Altimeter: Q1; Q2.
- Appaloosa: Q1; Q2.
- Berkshire Hathaway: Q1; Q2.
- Bridgewater: Q1; Q2.
- Coatue: Q1; Q2.
- Dalal Street: Q1; Q2.
- Fundsmith: Q1; Q2.
- Greenlight / DME: Q1; Q2.
- Icahn reporting group: Q1; Q2.
- Light Street: Q1; Q2.
- Pershing Square: Q1 (Pershing Square Capital Management); Q1 (Pershing Square Inc.); Q2.
- Situational Awareness: Q1; Q2.
- Soros Fund Management: Q1; Q2.
- Third Point: Q1; Q2.
- Tiger Global: Q1; Q2.
- Whale Rock: Q1; Q2.