AHNIM STUDIO | OKLO research tracker
Last evidence review: October 15, 2026 (Asia/Seoul). This page brings together our current assessment, dated source data, outstanding tests and research changes. Financial periods and document publication dates are retained below. A review date does not make a June balance sheet an October balance sheet.
The business and our current assessment
Oklo intends to build, own and operate nuclear powerhouses and sell their electricity. It also develops fuel and isotope activities. We track regulatory work, physical construction, qualified fuel, permission for startup activities, commissioning and contracted electricity delivery as distinct stages.
Current judgment: development progress is relevant, while the evidence reviewed does not yet establish sufficiently complete project economics for an AHNIM point target. The October 14 fundamental analysis remains our baseline. We have not introduced a target simply because an outside consensus or market price is observable. Read the complete research.
Dated financial and project evidence
| Metric | Value / unit | Period or as-of date | Document date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported revenue | US$1.210m; acquired activities, not Aurora power sales | Q2 and H1 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | [1] |
| Cash, equivalents and marketable debt securities | US$3,006.289m; excludes separate restricted cash | Jun 30, 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | [1] |
| Operating cash use | US$65.459m | H1 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | [1] |
| Cash property/equipment purchases | US$126.901m | H1 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | [1] |
| Operating cash flow less cash capex | −US$192.360m; AHNIM calculation | H1 2026; excludes acquisitions | Aug 7, 2026 | [1] |
| Idaho commercial deployment target | 2028; subject to required licensing | Company project page reviewed Oct 15 | Undated live page | [2] |
| Groves-2 Forge | Development plan; separate isotope path | Announcement Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13, 2026 | [3] |
The cash balance is a June snapshot and is not current construction funding. Equity sales can increase cash while also expanding the ownership claims on future income. Treasury investment purchases are not automatically plant capital expenditure, and interest earned on the treasury is not evidence of profitable reactor operation.
Keep regulatory and commercial stages separate
Progress in an isotope reactor or a materials-handling authorization is not an Aurora power operating license. The Idaho company page retains a 2028 target while describing parallel licensing, engineering and site work. A target is useful only as its dependencies become measurable; it is not proof that fuel, commissioning and commercial delivery are complete. [2] [3]
The fundamental analysis distinguishes the Meta development agreement, the nonbinding Switch master relationship and Equinix’s binding reservation rights with later power contracts still to be agreed. We do not aggregate their headline capacity into an enforceable power-sales backlog. Prices, duration, delivery obligations, termination rights and funding responsibilities determine the value of each instrument. Customer-contract evidence and original sources.
Economics that must be demonstrated
Our baseline illustrates capital recovery for a hypothetical 75MW plant, rather than claiming a price target. At US$8,000/kW overnight cost, 90% capacity factor, a 40-year life, a 10% assumed pretax capital return and US$40/MWh operating/fuel allowance, the calculation is approximately US$143.76/MWh. This is AHNIM arithmetic using illustrative assumptions, not an Oklo cost estimate or tariff.
The illustration excludes construction-period financing, delays, taxes, corporate overhead, decommissioning and additional fuel assets. It shows the question a valuation must answer: can actual selling terms support all the capital and obligations? A complete equity model would then allocate the project value retained by Oklo and divide by a realistic future diluted share base. Full sensitivity table and exclusions.
Expectations versus observed outcomes
| Then / author | Expected or assumed | Observed result / date | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company project page, reviewed Oct 15 | Idaho commercial deployment in 2028 | Commercial-operation result pending | Subject to required licensing; not achieved |
| AHNIM, Oct 14 | Point target withheld until project economics and financing are clearer | No complete tariff/cost/share bridge established in this review | Judgment retained |
| Company, Oct 13 | Groves-2 Forge development | Plan announced; economic output pending | No automatic Aurora valuation uplift |
Research change log
| Date | Previous judgment | New evidence / review | Valuation effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Coverage initiated | Deployment, customer terms, fuel, cash and dilution reviewed; baseline | No AHNIM point target; project sensitivity only |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Baseline judgment retained | Q2 figures and Idaho/Groves status rechecked for this page | No new operating or economic evidence requiring a change |
Next confirmation conditions
We would look for an increasingly bounded first-unit budget, power-sale terms that support it, a credible fuel path and measurable progress toward permitted startup and commissioning. Funding must show how much capital is supplied by customers, partners, lenders and common shareholders, and what share of future cash each receives.
Repeating construction efficiently is a later test. A successful first project can reduce uncertainty without proving fleet-scale economics. We do not compare a nonexistent AHNIM Base with broker targets: a matched target-gap calculation is unavailable. The existing research preserves dated outside views without substituting them for project cash flows.
Fundamental research
Oklo: nuclear deployment, cash flow and valuation
Sources and original documents
Oklo — Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 7, 2026
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849056/000162828026054571/oklo-20260630.htm
Oklo — Idaho project page, undated; reviewed October 15, 2026
https://oklo.com/projects-and-deployments/idaho
Oklo — Groves-2 Forge development, October 13, 2026
https://oklo.com/newsroom/oklo-to-advance-groves-2-forge-as-part-of-u-s-department-of-energys-nuclear-energy-launch-pad-se
AHNIM STUDIO — fundamental research, October 14, 2026
https://ahnimstudio.com/2026/10/14/oklo-stock-analysis-nuclear-deployment-cash-flow-valuation/